Macro Regime
Neutral
Confidence 94.8%
The economy remains in a neutral regime with high confidence, supported by modest growth momentum (0.49) and stable financial conditions (0.40), though the CFNAI's slight contraction (-0.2) suggests underlying softness. With the Fed funds rate at 3.64% and credit stress indicators benign (0.34), monetary policy appears appropriately calibrated, though the muted growth reading warrants continued monitoring for signs of deterioration. The VIX at 17.83 indicates calm market conditions consistent with the neutral outlook.
VIX
17.83
Yield Curve
0.50%
HY Spread
2.85%
Top 10 Bullish Signals
ranked by composite score
ORCL
0.81
Capex+0.90
Sentiment+0.80
Risk0.10
Tone0.80
Beat Prob.+0.50
Guidance0.60
Confident forward guidance with positive tone and minimal risk language.
LLY
0.76
Sentiment+0.80
Tone0.80
Risk0.20
Capex+0.60
Beat Prob.+0.60
Guidance0.50
Strong beat expectations, positive sentiment, and active capital deployment.
BSX
0.71
Risk0.10
Beat Prob.+0.80
Sentiment+0.70
Tone0.70
Guidance0.40
Capex+0.20
Management tone reflects strong earnings beat expectations.
GS
0.71
Sentiment+0.70
Beat Prob.+0.70
Tone0.80
Risk0.20
Capex+0.60
Guidance0.30
Strong beat expectations, positive sentiment, and active capital deployment.
NFLX
0.71
Risk0.10
Sentiment+0.70
Capex+0.50
Beat Prob.+0.50
Tone0.70
Guidance0.40
Broadly positive across sentiment, tone, and risk — clean bullish read.
NOC
0.71
Sentiment+0.70
Beat Prob.+0.70
Risk0.20
Capex+0.50
Tone0.70
Guidance0.40
Management tone reflects strong earnings beat expectations.
CAT
0.70
Sentiment+0.70
Beat Prob.+0.70
Tone0.75
Capex+0.50
Risk0.30
Guidance0.40
Management tone reflects strong earnings beat expectations.
SYK
0.70
Capex+0.80
Sentiment+0.70
Tone0.80
Risk0.20
Guidance0.30
Beat Prob.+0.30
Heavy investment activity paired with constructive management tone.
ISRG
0.69
Sentiment+0.80
Risk0.10
Tone0.80
Guidance0.20
Beat Prob.+0.50
Capex+0.40
Broadly positive across sentiment, tone, and risk — clean bullish read.
RTX
0.68
Sentiment+0.70
Risk0.20
Tone0.75
Capex+0.50
Beat Prob.+0.50
Guidance0.30
Broadly positive across sentiment, tone, and risk — clean bullish read.
Top 10 Bearish Signals
ranked by composite score
NKE
0.26
Sentiment-0.78
Guidance0.15
Beat Prob.-0.57
Risk0.78
Capex-0.22
Tone0.60
Negative sentiment combined with weak guidance and elevated risk language.
ZBH
0.29
Guidance0.00
Sentiment-0.40
Tone0.40
Risk0.60
Capex-0.20
Beat Prob.-0.20
Rising risk language and weak tone suggest deteriorating outlook.
TGT
0.31
Guidance0.00
Sentiment-0.40
Tone0.30
Beat Prob.-0.30
Risk0.40
Capex+0.00
Weak guidance and negative earnings expectations weigh on outlook.
ABT
0.33
Guidance0.20
Sentiment-0.50
Risk0.70
Tone0.40
Capex-0.20
Beat Prob.+0.00
Negative sentiment combined with weak guidance and elevated risk language.
NEM
0.35
Guidance0.00
Sentiment-0.20
Tone0.40
Beat Prob.-0.10
Risk0.50
Capex+0.00
Weak guidance and negative earnings expectations weigh on outlook.
CMCSA
0.35
Guidance0.00
Sentiment-0.20
Tone0.40
Beat Prob.-0.10
Risk0.50
Capex+0.00
Weak guidance and negative earnings expectations weigh on outlook.
GIS
0.36
Guidance0.04
Sentiment-0.22
Tone0.40
Risk0.40
Beat Prob.-0.20
Capex-0.08
Missed beat expectations and muted management tone signal weakness.
DE
0.36
Guidance0.10
Sentiment-0.20
Tone0.40
Beat Prob.-0.20
Risk0.50
Capex+0.00
Missed beat expectations and muted management tone signal weakness.
AAPL
0.36
Guidance0.00
Sentiment-0.20
Tone0.40
Risk0.40
Beat Prob.-0.10
Capex+0.00
Missed beat expectations and muted management tone signal weakness.
F
0.36
Guidance0.05
Tone0.42
Sentiment-0.15
Beat Prob.-0.15
Risk0.45
Capex-0.10
Guidance (0.05) and tone (0.42) weigh on the bearish composite score.